The science behind decarbonization

“The really big increases in record-setting event probability are reduced if the world achieves the aspirational targets rather than the actual commitments,” said Stanford professor Noah Diffenbaugh. “At the same time, even if those aspirational targets are reached, we still will be living in a climate that has substantially greater probability of unprecedented events than the one we’re in now.”

Among the dozens of countries that reduced their emissions 2016-2019, carbon dioxide emissions fell at roughly one tenth the rate needed worldwide to hold global warming well below 2°C relative to preindustrial levels, a new study finds.

An international group of experts, including Stanford Earth system scientist Rob Jackson, has published a roadmap of the most viable solutions for slashing greenhouse gas emissions globally by 2030. 

Science and technology experts with experience in diverse decarbonization options discuss U.S. pathways towards zero net greenhouse gas emissions in a webinar organized by the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.

Protecting carbon sinks, such as forests and wetlands, is key to slowing climate change, but only part of the puzzle, Stanford researchers say. Reducing emissions is still essential for meeting global climate goals.

Researchers propose three separate ways to avoid blackouts if the world transitions all its energy to electricity or direct heat and provides the energy with 100 percent wind, water and sunlight. The solutions reduce energy requirements, health damage and climate damage.

As power grids move away from fossil fuels, companies seeking to cut out carbon emissions will have to go beyond commitments to renewable energy. 

Storing energy produced by wind or solar for later use has a challenge competing with existing natural gas-fired generation units. But batteries designed for the job could ease the way.

Electricity has a clear path to decarbonization, Stanford Law School lecturer Danny Cullenward tells NPR. "The technologies that cut the emissions are things we have and we know how to work with. That's installing solar plants. That's installing wind plants. That's putting in battery energy storage systems. And we have the right policies and tools to get it done." 

Rooftop solar projects at schools could reduce harmful air pollution, help the environment and enhance student learning while cutting electricity costs, a new study finds.

"We need to move as quickly as we can with technologies that are ready to go, like wind and solar power, and continue to develop other critical components of a deeply decarbonized energy system like large-scale weekly to seasonal energy storage," said energy resources engineering professor Sally Benson.

Scientists have estimated the emissions intensity of carbon dioxide and other air pollutants from a major electricity distributor and highlighted key consequences – essential information for policymakers shaping decisions to reduce electricity system emissions.

Stanford scientists have developed a precise way to measure U.S. power plant emissions 24/7. The new tool will enable grid operators and big electricity consumers to reduce their carbon footprint in real time.

“I have grave misgivings about gigaton-scale natural solutions,” or forestry offsets, said Stanford Earth system science professor Rob Jackson. “And gigaton-scale is the only thing that matters when we’re talking about the coal and oil and natural gas industries.”

Research suggests large reductions in economic productivity can persist many years after a storm, yet few people connect foregone earnings today to a hurricane long past, economist Solomon Hsiang said in a discussion moderated by Stanford's Marshall Burke. The role of the policymaker, Hsiang said, could be fostering innovation that will bring the cost of adaptation technology down, or helping populations feel some of the more subtle impacts as something that will be more salient.

"We got to where we are now on climate through a history of white supremacy, extraction, exploitation," Alicia Seiger, managing director of the Sustainable Finance Initiative at Stanford's Precourt Institute for Energy tells Climate One. "That requires a path forward built on new systems with new representation, and that the solutions to climate expand far beyond simple carbon math."

"I think one thing that history can really offer to fixing the climate problem is to say look, we have known about this climate issue for a very long time for many, many decades. How is it that we have made such unsatisfactory progress in dealing with it," said Benjamin Franta, a Stanford PhD student researching the history of science. 

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from food systems will be vital to reaching climate goals – and it will require coordinated action across sectors and between national governments, according to new research coauthored by Inês Azevedo, associate professor of energy resources engineering. 

Nutrition expert Christopher Gardner discusses the protein-consuming habits of America, the drawbacks and ways to eat better.

The pandemic has tugged carbon emissions down, temporarily. But levels of the powerful heat-trapping gas methane continue to climb, dragging the world further away from a path that skirts the worst effects of global warming.

Nitrous oxide, also known as “laughing gas,” is the most important greenhouse gas after methane and carbon dioxide and the biggest human-related threat to the ozone layer. Stanford scientist Rob Jackson explains why emissions of the gas are rising faster than expected and what it will take to reverse the trend.

A new study finds emissions from deforestation, conversion of wild landscapes to agriculture, and other changes in land use worldwide contributed 25 percent of all human-caused emissions between 2001 and 2017. Expanding agricultural production in Latin America, Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa has propelled the global increase.

"We’re unlikely to be able to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius without cutting methane emissions ... also finding ways to neutralize methane already in the atmosphere," write Rob Jackson of Stanford and Daphne Wysham of the NGO Methane Action in an op-ed.

Emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from water heaters are higher than previously estimated, especially for a new type of heater growing in popularity, a new Stanford study finds. But simple fixes exist.

HFCs are all around us, and they're hundreds to thousands of times more potent greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide.

An engineer and clean-energy entrepreneur discusses the troubling socio-economic gap in access to sustainable energy and the things we can do now to narrow and, perhaps, close it.

Residential and commercial buildings account for about 30 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Electrification of the sector will be critical to achieving decarbonization, but it raises concerns around equity, affordability, logistics and public health. Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment hosted a conversation on the topic featuring U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM), as well as experts from Stanford and the Rocky Mountain Institute.

Should everyone with a gas range or water heater transition to an electric appliance immediately or wait until those appliances need replacing? Does is make a difference how old your gas stove is or what type it is? Does building electrification increase the risk to national security from possible targeting of the U.S. power grid? Experts answered these questions and more in a webinar hosted by Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.

With transportation belching out 28 percent of US carbon emissions, fuel economy will have to be a big part of the new administration’s climate plan. “The government needs to create a regulatory market through policies and subsidies,” Stanford environmental law professor Deborah Sivas tells Popular Science. “In the end, that’s what’s going to move the ball for industry – just like how these car companies got on board in California.”

"Almost $50 billion of stimulus funding after the 2008 recession helped transform wind and solar power and energy conservation. We’re still reaping the benefits today from green power, historically cheap wind and solar contracts and a clean-energy industry that employs three million Americans. We have the same chance to reshape transportation now," said Stanford professor Rob Jackson. 

Researchers examined the most beneficial vehicle fuel technology for transportation in the US and the trade-off between decarbonization and air pollution mitigation. The results show electric vehicle use must accompany clean energy grids to mitigate both climate change and air pollution.

A new analysis looks at what it would take for oil companies to start pumping millions of tons of carbon dioxide into their wells to boost crude production – and what it would mean for the climate.

With recent tax credits and other policies, removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it underground is not only possible but profitable for U.S. biofuel refineries. "“There’s really no scenario that meets the world’s climate goals without negative emissions,” said Katharine Mach.

"Increasingly carbon removal is being taken seriously," said Dan Reicher, a senior research scholar at Stanford who was on the energy transition team for former President Obama and helped put together the 2009 stimulus package. "It's become a mainstream option, and now the question is, 'Can it really be proven to work at scale and cost effectively?' That's the open question."

Once considered a distraction, scientists now say using technology—and nature – to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is not only possible: It’s a must.

New research suggests managing and disposing of high salinity brines – a by-product of efficient underground carbon sequestration – will impose significant energy and emissions penalties. The work quantifies these penalties for different management scenarios and provides a framework for making the approach more energy efficient.

“There is a lot of reliance on carbon capture in theoretical modeling, and by focusing on that as even a possibility, that diverts resources away from real solutions,” said Stanford engineering professor Mark Z. Jacobson. “It gives people hope that you can keep fossil fuel power plants alive. It delays action. In fact, carbon capture and direct air capture are always opportunity costs.”

Stanford faculty across disciplines are investigating the causes and effects of a warming planet and seeking new ways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions through green energy technologies. 

Stanford researchers, students and staff celebrate Earth Day 2021 with a week of events, new discoveries and research advances, and community engagement.